© A Gazdaság és Közélet online változata - XX. évfolyam
© A Gazdaság és Közélet online változata - XX. évfolyam

 

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Gazdaság és Közélet 2006-2025

 
Forgalom
Indulás: 2006-09-02
 
Gazdaság és Közélet - nyomtatott
Gazdaság és Közélet - nyomtatott : Decreasing deficiency, slow increase, tall inflation

Decreasing deficiency, slow increase, tall inflation

This year the Hungarian economy the balance of inside and exterior makes progress in right at the one waited for, him growing mutual very much brakes, and tall the inflation is left over. This emerges from GKI Economic research freshest analysis at least.

 

Most sections provided a more modest performance at the previous one in a September. The development of the industry declined to his this year's lowest value, the performance of the building industry fell with his quarter, the retail going back became sharper. The dynamics of the export slackened. The data of the I-III. quarters on his sheet the export of the industry 17%-kal, his inland realization 1,3%-kal exalted. Particularly the tram machines and instruments and the exports of the vehicle production express. The food industry's production decreased, but his export increased. While the first is the construction industry production in nine months 10%-kal fell back, on an interesting manner 10%-kal the number of the flats put to use rose. In the trade the traffic of the foods 1%-kal, the rest of the products 4%-kal reduced, the measure of the September decline at this sharper, 3 or 5,5% was. The GDP the III. in a quarter simply 1%-kal exalted. His role was big for holding the public utility services back in a dog, decreased drastic because of the bad weather for agrarian production. This is linked to latter one presumably the inland freight III. his quarterly decline. The volume of the investments decreased.

The state budget deficit this year the GDP 6% decreases. One of the halves of the some 3 percentage point improvements from the elevation of the incomes, his other half stems from expense decrease, in the latter similar proportion the state municipal investments, or from the reduction of the civil service expenses. The external economy balance improves significant. The deficiency of the foreign trade turnover in the course of the I-III. quarters the last year's 0,4 declined from 2 billion euros to a billion euros. The year in whole one's it merchandise- and a considerable asset arises in a service foreign trade. The liability of the income flows increases mutual, profit arising on the foreign country capital stock mostly, smaller part as a result of the interest charges. Since the net EU supports rise hardly compared to the last year's level in the capital balance, the exterior financing claim of the Hungarian economy 4,5 a billion euros, the GDP 4,4%-a will be.

He accelerated from the 2006 summers of the inflation starting powerful. On the 2007 springs of his apex taller, from the 2007 summers of him moderating more modest the early ahead at one marked. This mainly the tall world market oil price, and the tall agrarian prices his consequence. The price rising beat accelerated yet compared to a September in October, and - mainly because of the petrol price rising quickly - change which cannot be waited for already this year in this. The year in whole one's 7,9%-os average inflation expected. The gross average earnings the year in whole one's cca. 8,5%-kal, inside this in the business sphere cca. 9,5%-kal, in the budgetary sector the second term, onto the burden of the half of the thirteenth month have salary brought forward on the trace of a wage-rise cca. 6,3%-kal rises. The increase of the net pays lags behind this far. In this manner the commodity wages statistical cca. 4,5%, the whitening (the tax avoidance with a wide circle has it started for him being forced back) taking him being effective into consideration it business and in the public-sector equally quasi 6% moderates. The real value of the pensions in his totality constant is left over (reckoning with the pensioners' price index mutual quasi 2% moderates). Taking the population cca. 2% decreases, but this consumption of his bought within moderates hardly. The exchange rate of the Euro will be year around 251-252 forints in an average. The interest decreasing process got stuck, the continuation mainly the function of the global processes.

 

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